EV market update

Bryce Gaton gives an overview of where Australia and the world are at in the EV transition.

As a result of the massive expansion of the world (and Australian) electric vehicle (EV) markets, it’s been a while since I wrote a general market update for battery electric cars (BEVs). This is because the BEV market has grown so much that I’ve focussed more on sections of the market rather than bigger overviews. However, in these times of deliberate disinformation through twisted and invented ‘facts’ (and through their use, the attempts by some to deny the EV transition is even still happening), perhaps it is time to do a full review of where we and the world are at in the EV transition.

World
The march of the EV transition did continue in 2024—despite attempts by some to deny it. World EV sales for 2024 were up by a whopping 25% compared to 2023. It is also worth noting that even though the EU had a 3% fall in EV share overall in 2024, in absolute numbers they were still up by 1% year-on-year. (This drop is often attributed to both the EU’s largest EV market, Germany, removing its EV subsidies at the end of 2023 and manufacturers having no incentive to push EV sales whilst waiting on the new five-year set of EU vehicle emissions targets to be decided for 2025-30).

World EV sales are also on the up again in 2025: April sales this year were up 29% on the same month in 2024. China has led with a +35% YoY growth, but Europe is not far behind at +25%.
Norway—long the leader in the EV transition by setting a 2025 end-date for internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and light commercial vehicles—has also now reached the end-game at 94.9% plug-in vehicle sales in May this year (93.9% BEV and 1.1% PHEV).

With the march of EVs onto our roads, the world is now looking at when ‘Peak Oil’ will occur. A pointer to this event is Norway’s 2024 oil consumption for road transport falling by 12% compared to 2021.

Another interesting observation is that where subsidies and zero emissions vehicle mandates continued through 2024 without interruptions (such as in the UK), new EV sales reached almost 30% in 2024, compared to 24% in 2023.

Yet another point to note is that the recent worldwide decline in Tesla sales has not affected the overall trend of increasing EV sales. This is in part to be expected, as Tesla is now fighting for market share. Tesla is in an increasingly crowded market with other manufacturers meeting (and often now bettering) the offerings from Tesla. However, the fall in Tesla sales over the past six months could almost be called precipitous as it is likely due to CEO Elon Musk’s increasingly erratic behaviour putting off many green-minded and progressive would-be buyers. Certainly, in Germany, his support for the far-right AfD party has not gone down well, with Tesla sales down 60.4% compared to the same period last year.

Brand loyalty on the way out?
Another topic for the EV transition is where the vehicles are made. After getting in on the ground-floor for mass-producing EVs cheaply before the incumbents, China is now aggressively pushing into western markets with new brands and models from the luxury end to budget priced models.

America has reacted badly and effectively banned them through punitive tariffs, but the rest of the world is now seeing the possible replacement of incumbents (such as Toyota) by these new brands. BYD, for instance, has recently toppled the previous biggest EV producer (Tesla) from its podium—and is still expanding in the EV space at a phenomenal rate. The Shark 6 PHEV dual-cab ute for instance is selling here in record numbers and already knocking off many of the traditional tradie utes. May this year saw it take fifth place at 7.2% market share in the segment (out of 16 competitors), easily beating the Mazda BT50 (at 5.8%) and is now nipping at the heels of the Mitsubishi Triton (at 7.3%). It will be interesting to see how this segment reshapes itself when the all-electric LDV eTerron 9 arrives (likely due mid-2025).

Australia
Australia too has seen a massive change in both the proliferation of models and overall EV sales. 2024 saw a 13% increase in new plug-in EV (PEV) sales here over 2023. Despite rumours to the contrary, Australian sales also continued to grow in 2025. Q1 2025 (Jan-March) saw a new high, with PEV sales passing 11% of the overall market. That percentage was still made up of more BEVs than PHEVs (6.3% BEV and 4.81% PHEV), but PHEVs were unusually high—likely due to the FBT exemption for them being dropped on April 1 this year. That exemption now only applies to BEVs, so we are likely to see a drop-off in PHEV sales and a further surge in EV leasing.

The number of models that can be driven on a standard car licence has also grown dramatically. From eight BEVs in 2019 (seven passenger and one light commercial), the market has grown to hit the 100 mark in June (84 passenger and 16 light commercial).

It is also worth noting here that whilst some people might have you believe PHEVs, not BEVs, are the future, PHEVs are not a big part of the market here. Despite the artificial spike Q1 2025 saw in their sales numbers (as mentioned above), their overall part in Australia’s EV fleet is still tiny compared to BEVs.

Trends here and overseas
Brands like VW, Mercedes, Volvo and BMW are pushing ahead with rolling out their electric models here. VW is the latest with the arrival of the ID. 4, ID. 5 and the retro-inspired ID. Buzz.

However, the rise of the Chinese budget brand EV is going to continue for some time yet as the incumbents remain slow in coming to the volume/price segment part of the party.

VW, Renault and a number of others (including Tesla) have promised cheaper models to come ‘soon’, but that will not be soon enough if the rise of incoming Chinese brands continues chiselling off ‘rusted-on’ buyers of existing brands to the ever-improving models (and prices) of the new Chinese offerings.

Light commercial segment
The electrification of the light commercial segment has been slow here. Small businesses are notoriously price shy when it comes to buying EVs versus cheaper ICE vehicles, despite their overall lower fuel and service costs. Larger businesses have been buying some but thus far there have been few options available. Hopefully 2025 will see the latter change with the expected arrival of more one-tonne vans and utes.

One highly anticipated model is the Ford E-Transit Custom. Pricing for the Ford was recently revealed at $79,990 plus on-roads, with first deliveries to begin in the third quarter of this year. At $20,000 more than the diesel equivalent it could be a stretch for some: but for higher mileage users, the total cost of ownership (TCO) number may become a more compelling argument.

Others expected this year are the previously mentioned LDV eTerron 9 (due mid-2025) and the cargo version of the VW ID. Buzz.

Renault have also announced that electric versions of their popular Master and Traffic should be arriving in the second half of this year, as well as the Victory light truck and van from importers EV Automotive.

Second-hand BEV market developing
Another sign of the maturing EV transition is the developing second-hand market for EVs. (See Renew 158 for the article ‘There’s no need to buy new: Buying a second-hand EV’).

Many two- to four-year-old EVs are hitting the market now as their leases run out, and there are some excellent buying opportunities appearing. The two major auction houses now have between 10 and 40+ full BEVs going under the hammer each week—plus dealers are getting an ever-increasing number of trade-ins and ex-corporate BEV models coming through their yards. Demonstrator models are also a good source of cheaper near-new BEVs, and as model numbers and sales figures expand, more of these are becoming available. In fact, the second-hand segment has grown to the point that 12 months ago I added another second-hand market page to the fact sheets available at the Australian Electric Vehicle Association website. (See www.aeva.asn.au/bev-fact-sheets-secondhand-bevs)

To add to confidence in the second-hand BEV market, the US state of California has proposed that minimum warranties for BEV batteries be moved to 10 years/160,000km and 70% (up from eight years) … and moving to 80% from 2030. Like the eight year/160,000km warranty that is now common throughout the world that was based on the original Californian law, that will likely flow on in time to the rest of us.

Additionally, some auction houses and dealers here (as well as vehicle inspection businesses) are now offering ‘battery health’ reports. Certainly, EV batteries are not dying at the pace some people would have you believe: in fact, studies are finding the average range loss for a BEV battery is between 0.5% and 1%. This means a 500km range BEV bought now will still have between 450km to 475km of range remaining in 10 years. At that rate, the battery is more than likely to outlast the car!

In conclusion
The EV transition is definitely still happening. My prediction is that the next five years will likely see new PEV sales close to 50% and ‘peak oil’ behind us. Australia, with the New Vehicle Emission Standards and improved fuel quality requirements soon to come into play, plus the application of the Fringe Benefits Tax exemption to BEVs only since April 1 this year, we will likely start to catch up with the rest of the world in terms of new car sales. It does remain to be seen if the other impediments to the transition (like the costs to install charging in apartments and workplaces, charger reliability standards, etc) will be addressed in orderly policy-based fashion to prevent further hiccups along the way.