Waiting for a replacement isn’t a climate strategy

We can’t afford to wait for ‘end of life’ transition, especially for buildings and long-life trucks, writes Alan Pears.

As I have explained in other articles, releasing a tonne of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere today will add to global heating each year for a century or more. So rapid emission reduction is critically important. This means we have to focus much more attention on adapting existing buildings and equipment to cut emissions and adapt to changing climate.

Buildings
Building energy policy has finally recognised that many households and businesses feel disempowered. Almost a third of households and many businesses rent, while many more are subject to owners corporations, who limit their ability to manage energy-related decisions.

Some policy makers are acknowledging that Virtual Power Plants (where an energy retailer or third party contributes to solar, battery and other investments that cut energy costs) are not popular with consumers. I am not surprised: many consumers do not trust energy businesses, regulators, policy makers or governments to act in consumer interests as they pursue profit or ‘economic efficiency’. We need to develop more options to manage electricity in ways that are convenient and empower consumers.

Building policy makers have now realised that the ‘embodied emissions’ from production of building materials can now exceed the lifetime operating emissions of a building. And these emissions are released today, not progressively over time.

Creative building and equipment adaptation with AI-driven efficiency management is urgently needed. We must move beyond bespoke individual building upgrades to volume renovations using modular, standardised upgrades. We also need to develop cheaper ways of adapting to increasing climate-driven flood and fire risks and ensuring new buildings can cope with an increasingly angry Mother Nature. Renew (renew.org.au) is very active in providing resources.

Transport
While Australians can be proud of our progress in cutting emissions from electricity, the transport story is very different. Transport emissions have grown by over 20% since 2005, to 100 million tonnes per year, almost a quarter of total emissions. Road transport emissions have grown by more than 50% since 1990 and produced around 86Mt in 2023-24.

With escalating international conflict, concern about transport has recently moved beyond its growing share of carbon emissions and traffic congestion to energy security, oil and gas prices and shortages. Australia imports most of its petroleum at a total cost of $53 billion in 2025. Half of this cost is for diesel fuel, mainly used for road freight (see Figure 1).

Passenger vehicle emissions comprise around half of road transport emissions, and have declined slightly since 2010: they dipped during COVID. Heavier vehicles and increased travel have offset technology efficiency improvements. Rapid growth in electric vehicle numbers is beginning to reduce emission trends. But we face a significant challenge if we are to rapidly replace our gas guzzlers.

Restructuring taxes and other incentives for new vehicle buyers so they buy low carbon vehicles suited to families is urgent and essential. Most households buy second-hand cars, so we need to ensure they can choose efficient, low emission vehicles that deliver the services they need in the second-hand market.

Road freight
Road freight emissions now comprise about half of road transport emissions, over 10% of total Australian emissions, as shown in Figure 2. Since 2010, these emissions have increased by 38%, increasing diesel fuel consumption.

Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) dominate road freight emissions, though this may include some emissions from ‘business’ vehicles used for personal transport. They are very inefficient, typically carrying loads of only about 100 kilograms. Indeed, to carry one tonne of freight one kilometre (1 tonne-kilometre) an LCV travels almost 10 kilometres and emits 3.1 kilograms of greenhouse gas. This is over 14 times as much as a rigid truck and 44 times as much as a semi-trailer. LCVs add to traffic congestion, increasing fuel consumption of other traffic at times.

Online shopping, home delivery and urban sprawl are driving LCV freight emissions. But there are some interesting developments.

Light commercial vehicle (LCV) emissions have increased. Generous tax deductions, leasing options and weaker fuel efficiency standards for utes and 4-wheel drives add to the problem. Growth in online commerce is also driving increased ‘last mile’ freight activity.

Innovation is helping. E-bikes and e-trikes are playing increasing roles and new design concepts, like that shown at right, are emerging. But regulations must be adapted to support their wider use. We also need infrastructure that delivers safety and convenience for low-speed vehicles, including both commercial and personal vehicles.

We also need other solutions such as lockable cupboards at railway stations, supermarkets and other convenient locations where buyers can collect or drop off items during their existing travel.

Semi-trailers account for almost 60% of Australia’s truck carbon emissions, but they are more than three times as efficient as rigid trucks. Of course, they often provide very different services. Many rigid trucks could already be easily replaced by electric alternatives using existing technologies.

There are many ways to improve utilisation and efficiency of trucks. We can also reduce the amount of freight transported, or shift to more efficient transport modes such as rail. Reports such as Mov3ment’s Electric Truck Report 2025 (tinyurl.com/32uw62rf) provide extensive analysis and information.

Semi-trailers (often called articulated vehicles) have typical lives of over 25 years, travelling nearly 2 million kilometres and using over 50 litres of diesel per 100 kilometres. They often travel long distances at high speed. Nevertheless, electric options are appearing, while hydrogen seems to have been outmanoeuvred by the rapid progress in electric and battery technologies.

Rapid growth in electric semi-trailers is occurring, particularly in China. The economics for major Australian freight routes are starting to look attractive, as David Leitch has recently described (see tinyurl.com/y3mc2x7t).

But we don’t have time to wait until end-of-life to replace existing long-lived semi-trailers if we are to meet climate targets. Instead of trying to electrify prime movers, South Australian company VE Motion has developed a powered trailer system for heavy transport. This incorporates a battery pack and electric motor for the trailer—instead of the prime mover. VE Motion estimates this can cut diesel use by up to 50%. They offer many of the advantages of a full EV truck.

Wheel motors and axle motors are emerging. These can be retrofitted more easily to prime movers or trailers.

Hybrid or fully electric trucks or powered trailers offer many benefits, including faster acceleration and hill-climbing, reduced wear and noise from braking systems and, when the diesel engine is used, lower fuel consumption, reduced air pollution, noise and vibration impacting drivers. Battery charging can be done during mandated driver rest periods or through trailer swapping.

The retrofit hybrid or powered trailer approach could be applied much faster and more widely in rural areas than full-electric trucks, as they don’t rely so much on access to high-capacity battery charging infrastructure. AURECON has suggested that provision of charging capacity throughout rural areas would be expensive (see tinyurl.com/ysy7vjcj).
We also need to implement financing mechanisms to accelerate change, as many trucks are owned by micro-businesses with very small profit margins